Sunderland v Swansea Tip

This could be the perfect opportunity for a speculative long shot in the half time/full time market based on this season’s data. Taking Sunderland to lead at the break but to lose by the end may sound audacious, but at best odds of 45/1 (BetVictor) it could be worth a flutter. Here’s why.

Sunderland are very much a first half team. If every top flight match had ended after 45 minutes in 2012-13 then the Black Cats would be fourth in the table, not 11th. In complete contrast, if only the second periods had counted this term then Swansea would be flying high in fifth, not ninth.

Cynics will say this is just an anomaly, but it could equally be a sign of the Welsh club having greater fitness, and their ability to keep possession better than most would logically make them stronger towards the end of games.

Back in September, the return fixture at the Liberty Stadium very nearly produced this very outcome. The Mackems led 2-1 at the interval only for the Swans to draw level on the hour and then press hard for the victory. Laudrup’s boys dominated the second half even after Chico was sent off with 20 minutes to go.

On that evidence, and on the season’s evidence as a whole, there is value in this mega long-shot punt.