10th Dec 2011 | Football
Stoke v Tottenham Tip
Stoke City at the Britannia Stadium. Tottenham should expect the usual aerial bombardment.
A tough game to call with Stoke back on form and Spurs never really off it since August. This is the sort of clash that really could go either way. It may be determined to some extent by the result of some late fitness tests; Rory Delap and Jermaine Pennant could play for the hosts, Gareth Bale and Ledley King are among the doubts for the visitors. With so much uncertaintly surrounding key players, I’m reluctant to predict a winner at this stage.
Instead let’s go with an unusual angle that I’m confident can give us some value. Bet365 offer us a best price of 4/1 that the first goal of the match will be scored with the head. The other bookmakers go shorter than this, probably because this is a Stoke match. The Potters have scored 36% of their goals this season from headers - the highest rate in the division. Harry Redknapp’s side have conceded 31% of their goals from headers - another Premier League high.
We’re betting primarily on the basis that Stoke’s greatest strength could reap reward against Tottenham’s apparent weakness in the air. But crucially, we will still win if Tottenham score with a header instead! They aren’t an unusually small side and there is every chance it could happen. It therefore looks like a decent value bet based on the nature of the match.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 15:09 10th Dec, 2011 but subject to change
