Southampton v Reading Tip

The biggest game of the Championship season to date sees the top two clash with a spot in next season’s Premier League now well and truly in sight. Southampton and Reading are tied on 82 points apiece, six points ahead of faltering West Ham with just four matches remaining. Neither team should be more needy or anxious than the other, and avoiding defeat may become the priority in what should be a tight encounter. With that in mind, the draw looks the best bet at market-leading odds of 12/5 with Boylesports.

The Saints (13/10 PaddyPower) have home advantage and the edge on goal difference, but I can’t make them strong favourites. Yes, they have the outstanding striker in the division in Rickie Lambert, and their form is good, but the Royals are even hotter in 2012.

Brian McDermott’s side have won four on the bounce and their 14 successes in this calender year exceeds the tally of Nigel Adkins’ boys by four. They won at Upton Park recently, and if I had to pick a winner in this one the value is in the visitors at 5/2 (BetVictor).

But luckily I don’t have to pick a winner, and the price on the draw is most appealing. Southampton haven’t lost any of their last seven at St Mary’s and they have more than steadied the ship after a brief wobble a while ago; nine victories in the last 13 is proof of that.

It’s the top attacking team in the second tier against the sternest defence. They could largely cancel each other out. If the spoils are shared, West Ham can only close the gap to four points even if they win on Saturday. That would still be a considerable gap with only three rounds of fixtures remaining. Therefore, the important thing for two evenly matched sides must be to avoid a loss and a major dent to morale.

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