Relegation Double

It’s all about picking the right two from five for ‘Survival Sunday.’ If we start with who won’t be joining West Ham in the second tier we can resolve our dilemma by the laws of deduction.

Wolves should now finish top of the ‘bottom six mini-table.’ McCarthy’s side have shown they have the fight and the bottle already; seven points from the last three crunch games with Sunderland, West Brom and Birmingham is mightily impressive in the circumstances. The manager has suffered too much heartache in previous Premiership campaigns to allow his team to blow it now.

Molineux’s visitors Blackburn are effectively shutting their eyes, putting their fingers in their ears and waiting to be woken up when it’s all over. Technically, Rovers are masters of their own destiny to an even greater extent than Wolves, courtesy of their superior goal difference. It’s fairly pitiful that a -14 goal record is the main source of comfort at this stage; proof that keeping the score down in defeat really can be important. A draw is almost certain to suit both sides but expect Wolves to triumph by the odd goal. That is likely to be suffice for Steve Kean’s side too, in the final analysis.

So now we have to distinguish between the three teams on 39 points. The bookies have Wigan as marginal favourites to pull off the great escape because they face slightly less illustrious opponents. The perceived wisdom is that Man Utd will beat Blackpool, regardless of what personnel Ferguson puts out. An Old Trafford record of 17 wins, 1 draw and no defeats is unlikely to go up in smoke for the champions.

Tottenham can also be expected to take care of a Birmingham side who have frozen in the headlights. Redknapp’s side are still pursuing 5th place, and a crack at the Europa League; any doubts about their motivation in this regard were dispelled by the 0-2 win at Anfield last time out.

If these two fixtures do go to form then Wigan would need only a draw at the Brittania Stadium to stay up. The bookies are backing this outcome by making the most likely relegation double Blackpool and Birmingham at 15/8 with bet365. I’m going against this wisdom. Stoke have an excellent record on their own patch having gone unbeaten there in 2011. Admittedly they fell short in the Cup Final, and yes it was a case of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ against City in the league re-match on Tuesday. But Tony Pulis has not built a side to go out with a whimper and he will want the high league finishing position his team merits. A win for the Potters could see them finish as high as eighth; a defeat could see them slip well below mid-table. This is not something that will be taken lightly at a side like Stoke.

Tipping Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan to all lose makes goal difference decisive. I don’t fancy Ian Holloway’s side in this instance. The Tangerines are the most likely of the three sides to go for the juggernaut, and therefore the most likely to get beaten resoundingly. Birmingham have a two goal start over Wigan and could eventually find themselves playing for a 1-0 or 2-0 defeat. I fancy the Blues to survive by the skin of their teeth and condemn Blackpool and Wigan to Championship football. The odds on those two dropping out of the top flight are 5/2 with Coral.