The Value Of Shot Position

Over the past few weeks, we have examined using ‘shots’ and ‘shots on target’ as a proxy for performance. It gives us a level of detail beyond the scoreline, but still has its limits.

Shots have different levels of value, for example a shot from the six yard box is far more likely to result in a goal than a speculative effort from 35 yards. This is particularly pertinent when looking at individual player statistics.

Top 10 Players by Shots per Game

Minimum 4 matches

Ignoring the opposition this weekend, which is obviously a big factor, Andros Townsend looks incredibly good value to score anytime at 6/1 (Paddy Power) considering he averages 5.5 shots per game this season. However, before marching off to the bookies it’s worth looking at the quality of his shots.

Shots in the Box

Andros Townsend has managed 22 shots in four matches but only two of them have come from inside the box. This is crucial because shots taken inside the box are more likely to result in a goal; football analyst Colin Trainor has written an excellent article proving this very point.

Instead, a player like Roberto Soldado who averages only 2.8 shots per game, but all inside the box, might be a stronger anytime goalscorer bet.

Headers are another area to treat with caution. By their very nature 99% of headers are going to come from inside the box but statistically they are less likely to result in a goal compared to a shot from the same position.

When looking at shot statistics it pays to scratch below the surface because headline numbers can be deceiving.