What Is Going On At United?

Manchester United are filling up column inches as they continue to win without impressing. I’ll leave the tactical and stylistic analysis to those better qualified but how does this impact the betting?

People might think United cannot keep getting away with playing badly, eventually they will have their comeuppance. It is a valid argument but there are subtleties.

Using total shot ratios, we can assign a probability of each result (win/lose/draw) based on shots. In theory this should even out ‘freak’ results, e.g. a team is heavily outshot but sneaks a win with a dubious penalty.

Man Utd Away Performance

Overall United are getting what they deserve away from home, with 16 actual points compared to an expected 14.9.

Man Utd Home Performance

Performances at Old Trafford explain the zeitgeist better. United have taken an incredible 31 points, instead of an expected 22.5.

That is quite a disparity. Look down the list and you see maximum points from games against West Ham, Liverpool, Newcastle and Burnley without United ever dominating the game or shot tally.

If we average the win/draw probabilities and separate for home and away matches, we are able to assign an odds expectation for each result (decimal odds row).

Unless there is a change in approach or performance United should be evens (2.05 decimal odds) to win at Old Trafford and 2/1 (3.06 decimal) to win away from home.

This doesn’t take into account the opposition but is a useful guide on how to approach a betting market involving Manchester United.