Saints Struggle Under Expectations

Southampton have confounded expectations all season and they continue to do so – but not in a good way.

Having only picked up one point from their last three home games, the form table suggest Southampton’s brave tilt at a top-4 finish is running out of steam.

That narrative might be confirmed at the Hawthorns on Saturday but that doesn’t make it entirely correct.

In their last three home games, Southampton have out-shot their opponents 49 to 16. One solitary point is the least they deserved, although their finishing has been poor. 

You might also be surprised to find out Southampton have won their last four away games but not without their fair share of luck. In those four matches they have been out-shot 50 to 43.

So in summary, you have a Southampton team performing well at home without reward and the opposite on their travels.

Eventually their results with flip-flop, so the value is to back West Brom to win at 12/5 (Bet365).

Then ignore the doom mongers and back Southampton to win their next home game, when their price will have no doubt drifted.