Premier League Top Goalscorer Betting Analysis

We’ve taken a look at the stats to see where the value may lie in the ultra-competitive Premier League top goalscorer market. The odds given are the best currently available for each contender.

Luis Suarez (5/2 Boylesports)

Club: Liverpool
Goals: 8
Games: 6
Shots: 36 (6.0 per game)

Verdict:

Could have won the Golden Boot last term, but for the infamous biting incident which saw his tally end on 23 goals from 33 league outings. The ensuing suspension delayed the Uruguayan’s start to 2013-14 but he is already joint-top marksman regardless.

A worthy favourite, particularly in light of his phenomenal 6 shots per game ratio which is in a league of its own. However, there must always be a note of caution where Suarez is concerned. He also missed 9 games through suspension in 2011-12 so you wonder when he will self-destruct again.

Sergio Aguero (6/1 Skybet)

Club: Man City
Goals: 8
Games: 9 (1)
Shots: 37 (4.1 per game)

Verdict:

Registered a frankly disappointing 12 goals in 30 league appearances last season after firing 23 from 34 when City won the title in 2011-12. Although the number one striker at the Etihad, he may still lose playing time due to squad rotation. However, the Argentine has flown out of the blocks, adding 5 Champions League goals to his 8 in the league to confirm his pedigree. His price looks about right.

Daniel Sturridge (10/1 Coral)

Club: Liverpool
Goals: 8
Games: 11
Shots: 39 (3.5 per game)

Verdict:

We backed him at 25/1 each-way pre-season and he hasn’t disappointed. The other half of Anfield’s deadly ‘SAS’ partnership, the England man could conceivably find himself beaten to the big prize by his team-mate. Sturridge doesn’t have nearly as many shots per fixture as Suarez, nobody does, but he’s assured of plenty of minutes and the same quality service from the likes of Gerrard and Coutinho.

Robin Van Persie (5/1 BetVictor)

Club: Man Utd
Goals: 7
Games: 10
Shots: 33 (3.3 per game)

Verdict:

An interesting one, given that the Dutchman’s price has lengthened since the start of the season despite being only one goal off the pace. The winner of the Golden Boot in 2011-12 with Arsenal (30 goals/38 games) and in 2012-13 with United (26 goals/38 games), he keeps finding the net with regularity in spite of his club’s slow start to the campaign. Nobody has more pedigree, Van Persie may now be a smart bet as opposed to the shorter priced, suspension-prone Suarez.

Loic Remy (33/1 BetVictor)

Club: Newcastle
Goals: 7
Games: 8 (1)
Shots: 27 (3.4 per game)

Verdict:

With Victor offering quarter odds if your pick finishes in the top three goal-getters, the Frenchman could be an intriguing each-way selection at long odds. The 26-year-old doesn’t get quite as many shots per game as some other contenders, given that he plays for a lesser side, but he is guaranteed to be the first name on the team sheet every week. If he stays fit and sharp, those extensive league minutes could give him a chance.