Premier League Relegation Treble Tip

The three teams promoted to the Premier League are always among the favourites to go straight back down, but recent history suggests this really should not be the case. Indeed, over the past six seasons, there have been no occasions when more than one of the newcomers has returned immediately to the Championship.

The following statistics show the three teams who have been relegated each year since 2009:
(The promoted teams are in bold with the finishing positions of the other teams from the previous season in brackets).

2014: Norwich (11th), Fulham (12th), Cardiff
2013: Wigan (15th), Reading, QPR (17th)
2012: Bolton (14th), Blackburn (15th), Wolves (17th)
2011: Birmingham (9th), Blackpool, West Ham (17th)
2010: Burnley, Hull (17th), Portsmouth (14th)
2009: Newcastle (12th), Boro (13th), WBA

Trends can be identified to help us make our selections for a relegation treble for 2014-15.

One thing that leaps out is that the side who finished 17th went on to be relegated the following year in four of the last five campaigns. At the end of 2014-15 that position was occupied by WBA and they seem an obvious first selection for this wager.

Twelve months ago we identified that the Baggies were in freefall in the second half of 2012-13, a fact disguised by their strong final position (8th). Sure enough they then struggled last term, winning only seven of their 38 matches.

This time around they look like a shambles waiting to happen. Steve Clarke was sacked last December, then Keith Downing had a stint as caretaker before Pepe Mele came and went in four months. Now Alan Irvine has been given a chance and, quite simply, he represents a huge risk. Sacked by Sheffield Wednesday in 2011, it’s hard to see how he can revive a team on a downward spiral.

The next conclusion to reach from the statistics above is that although the majority of promoted clubs do stay up, one of the new boys almost always does drop. But who is most vulnerable? The bookies inevitably think Burnley, but they will largely stay true to the group which got them in this position, and they may surprise a few teams at Turf Moor.

I also think QPR will be in safe hands with wily veteran Harry Redknapp at the helm. The £8m signing of Steven Caulker showed ambition even if it remains to be seen how Rio Ferdinand performs alongside him. If the Hoops are languishing come January, you can be sure the former Spurs boss will delve back into the transfer market, and probably keep them up.

The promoted team I fear for most is actually Leicester City. A team who arrives in the top flight with money can sometimes struggle by trying to do too much too soon. For example, the £8m signing of Leonardo Ulloa disrupts the dressing room but will he actually deliver?  16 goals in all competitions is ok in the Championship but hardly breathtaking.

The Foxes could follow in the footsteps of Cardiff City by panicking if things start to go wrong, such is the desperation of the owners to stay in the promised land.

My final pick for relegation is a West Ham Utd side who look like an accident waiting to happen. News that Andy Carroll will be out for four months, again, had Hammers’ fans holding their heads in their hands before the season has even kicked off. Enner Valencia is an intriguing signing, but he too will miss the start of the campaign.

With the mercurial Ravel Morrison also facing serious off-field problems, Sam Allardyce has endured a troublesome pre-season. My prediction would be that this team aren’t good enough to go six months without a slump, at which point ‘Big Sam’ will probably be shown the door whether he deserves it or not. After that, a new manager will face a daunting task to keep the Londoners in the division.

A relegation treble of WBA/Leicester/West Ham is available at a best price of 100/1 with Skybet.