Looking Beyond Goals Against

Perhaps the most quoted statistic in recent week is that Southampton possess one of the best defensive records in Europe. It’s headline grabbing stuff but does it tell us anything we can apply to betting?

My first reaction was that Southampton are over-achieving; a statically quirk waiting to regress to the mean. In non-technical language – a tonking is around the corner.

Dig a little deeper however and it seems the miserly Saints’ defence is achieving results on merit.

Shots on target conceded

Instead of focusing on goals, I have examined the number of shots on target each Premier League team has conceded so far this season. Southampton come out top, allowing on average 2.9 shots on target per game.

It is acceptable to say Southampton currently have one of the best defences in the league but there is still a level of over-achievement.

Southampton concede a goal every 5 times the opposition have a shot on target, significantly above the league average of 3.5. If you applied a ‘normal’ strike rate, Southampton would have conceded 10 goals so far this season. Slightly worse than their current predicament but still amongst the best defensive records in the league.

Liverpool Too Open
One team who look like a regression waiting to happen are Liverpool. Second in the league, everything might look rosy for Brendan Rodgers but his team allow too many shots to be considered genuine title contenders. Only Norwich, Fulham and Cardiff have allowed more shots on target this season.

Liverpool are in debt to their goalkeeper Simon Mignolet, his outstanding form is one of the main reasons they haven’t conceded the 18 goals the model predicts.

Better Days Ahead for Crystal Palace & Sunderland
Whilst Liverpool have been overachieving, Crystal Palace and Sunderland are left with the thin edge of the wedge.

Crystal Palace have the joint-third leakiest defence in the league but their shot concession stats are worthy of a mid-table team.

The Eagles concede 4.4 shots on target per game but shots too often result in goals. A ‘normal’ strike rate would have seen them concede six fewer goals and it’s a similar story for Sunderland who are 8 goals worse off.

Just a simple change in fortune will see Crystal Palace’s defensive numbers improve. Their main problem is in attack, not defence, which makes the appointment of Tony Pulis look slightly strange. 

Summary

Expect Liverpool to be involved in more games like the Merseyside derby if they don’t tighten up their defence.
Example bet: Hull v Liverpool over 2.5 goals at 19/20 with Bet365

Crystal Palace to be involved in more low scoring games.
Example bet: Crystal Palace to beat Norwich without conceding at 7/1 with Coral