Everton v Liverpool Tip

Regular football punters will be well aware that you often get longer odds on the draw than the home or away win, even when it must be the most likely outcome.

That’s because truly impartial football fans are rare, and people prefer to choose one side to back. But take out the emotion, back the draw, and often finding an edge really is as simple as that!

Take this weekend’s Merseyside derby at Goodison Park as a prime example. Liverpool are the slightly better side but that minor edge is nullified by Everton’s home advantage. Besides which, both the clashes between the rivals in 2012-13 ended with the spoils being shared.

If we look specifically at Roberto Martinez’s team then the case for a stalemate gets even stronger. Everton had 15 draws in 38 league outings last season (the joint most) and there’s been another five from 11 fixtures this term (again the joint most).

So over nearly 50 league matches, 41% of Toffees’ encounters have ended as draws. At best odds of 12/5 (WilliamHill), another one looks probable on Saturday.