Out of the top draws

Last week I predicted that two tight Europa League games involving Rangers and Liverpool would end in draws and Tuesday’s Champions League offerings have a very similar feel to them. First legs always tend to be cagey especially when the away team is the better side and this is surely the case with both FC Copenhagen v Chelsea and Lyon v Real Madrid. The draw double is slightly better than an 11/1 shot with Victor Chandler.

Chelsea head to Denmark with an FA Cup penalty shootout exit to Everton on Saturday fresh in their minds. The pressure on the manager is becoming intolerable and the knowledge that the Champions League represents the last chance to salvage the season won’t ease that. The big question is how will the players react? Torres is likely to play, as are Michael Essien and Nicolas Anelka who all missed the game with Everton. This should help but the problem is that the Danish champions will be something of an unknown quantity.

Due to the Danish winter break Copenhagen haven’t played a competitive match for four months. Does this make you rusty or incredibly fresh and raring to go? Time will tell. An unbeaten league campaign with a 19 point lead may say most about the level of competition over there but it suggests a professionalism to maintain standards at the very least. Perhaps the biggest warning for Chelsea is the 1-1 draw the Danes secured at home to Barcelona in the group stages. This would actually be a half-decent result for the West London outfit in regard to progressing and it’s easy to imagine it happening.

Real Madrid head to Lyon as hot favourites that the statistics don’t entirely support. The teams have been drawn together three times before with Lyon winning all three home games before drawing each trip to the Bernabeu. Madrid have been knocked out at this stage in each of the last six campaigns. But none of this matters to those who worship at the feet of Jose Mourhinho and he has at least improved the defence in Europe. Under his tenure Real have conceded fewer than everybody bar Man Utd in the Champions League.

Lyon are hardly looking the formidable force of previous seasons themselves though. Their form, like Madrid’s, is patchy and they sit only fourth in the French league. However, this sounds worse than it is with only four points separating them from Lille in top spot.

Madrid, under Mourhinho, should never be under-estimated but neither should his determination to grind out results away from home. A draw wouldn’t be the worst first leg outcome for either side and this always makes that prospect a little more likely.