Opposites Attract: Arsenal v Aston Villa

Earlier in the week, we discussed how thinking like a bookmaker is often the best way to profit from football. When a big favourite gets turned over, the betting firms’ coffers get filled. We saw in midweek how hot favourites Tottenham failed to beat Stoke, thus scuppering thousands of betslips throughout the land. Predicting upsets might be difficult but going against the crowd is always the value approach.

Arsenal v Aston Villa
Arsenal are the form team in the Premier League. They have won their last six games scoring 19 goals in the process. They have the prolific Robin Van Persie in their ranks and home advantage. At 4/11 (William Hill) they look a certainty to beat a struggling Aston Villa side languishing in the bottom half of the league.

It seems a compelling argument, one that will convince the masses to pile into Arsenal whether it be in singles or accumulators. The short odds almost add to the attraction of this ‘unbeatable’ bet. This is the trap the bookmakers want you to fall into.

Football is one of the few sports where the result can be determined by fortune, a moment of magic or madness. A disallowed goal, a poor refereeing decision, an inspired goalkeeper – just a few factors that can have a dramatic outcome on the result.

Look closer at the results and Arsenal have won four of their last six by only a single goal margin. On the other hand, Aston Villa haven’t lost a league game by two or more goals since January, eight games ago.

The teams aren’t as far apart as the odds would suggest, a lucky break like a deflected goal or a sending-off could alter the match. The Zeitgeist might be an Arsenal win, but tread carefully when you see these long odds-on shots.

Verdict: Aston Villa-Draw at 9/4 in the Double Chance market with Paddy Power.

*The Double Chance market is available with all the major bookmakers. It means your bet wins if either of two outcomes occurs. In this case, the bet wins if Aston Villa win or draw against Arsenal.