Newcastle v Chelsea

Andre Villas-Boas takes his under pressure team to the north-east to take on high-flying Newcastle United at the re-named ‘Sports Direct Arena.’ The Geordies will take great heart from their 1-1 draw at Old Trafford last weekend, in addition to their unbeaten home run stretching back to March, and ten matches. With Chelsea really under the cosh, I fancy the hosts at 7/4 (PaddyPower) in the ‘draw no bet’ market. That means we get our money back if the match ends level, but a healthy profit if the Magpies take all three points.

The bookies seem to have a blind spot regarding Chelsea that’s reflected in almost every betting market. The Blues are still considered 2/5 (Bet365) ‘certainties’ to finish top four when most punters looking at the league table would conclude they have a real job on their hands.

All the form and statistics suggest that an away win is pretty unlikely on Saturday lunchtime, and that’s all that concerns us with this particular bet.  Most significantly, Newcastle have only lost one of their last 16 league matches, whereas Chelsea have lost five of nine in all competitions. They are hot favourites for this clash (11/10 Boylesports) based on little more than reputation.

Alan Pardew’s side will also boast the most prolific striker on the pitch, based on form. Demba Ba has nabbed nine in his last 12 league outings; Lampard and Sturridge have six apiece for the visitors this season. The hosts will also be desperate to put on a top performance in honour of former favour Gary Speed, who tragically passed away this week.

Three of the last four league meetings between these sides have ended in draws, including both last season. The Toon Army are a greater force to be reckoned with now while the Blues have rarely looked so vulnerable. With that in mind, a home win at 14/5 (PaddyPower) is tempting, but a Newcastle victory - with draw no bet - at 7/4 (PaddyPower) gives us insurance and is therefore even better.