Newcastle Dependant On Yohan Supply

One peculiarity about fixed odds football betting is that pre-match markets are generally very stable. It takes a huge weight of money or earth shattering news to instigate a significant change in odds, especially in the win/lose/draw market.

This weekend Newcastle face Liverpool, two teams that have often relied on just one player.

Liverpool are starting to be weaned off their Suarez dependency but Newcastle are still hugely reliant on Yohan Cabaye.

Yohan Cabaye’s attacking influence on Newcastle 2012/13

Ben Pugsley from StatsBomb has written an excellent article explaining shot influence and the maths behind it but it is Cabaye’s all-round contribution that is startling.

Last season, Yoahan Cabaye contributed to 32.2% of Newcastle’s shots, either by taking shots or creating shot assists; in an attacking sense only Demba Ba had a bigger influence per game.

Yohan Cabaye’s defensive influence on Newcastle 2012/13

Hatem Ben Arfa was close to matching Cabaye in attacking contributions but defensively the French winger was virtually anonymous. Here we see Cabaye’s all-round influence; his 17% defensive contribution was only bettered by midfield destroyer Cheik Tiote.

Examine both tables and Yohan Cabaye is Newcastle’s second most influential attacker and defender. This might be skewed by his position in the centre of midfield but there is no doubt the 27-year-old is the fulcrum of the side.

Since the start of the 2011/12 season in 59 games Cabaye has started, Newcastle have taken an average of 1.61 points. In games without him Newcastle average a meagre 0.88 points per game.

Therefore, when betting on Newcastle make sure you check the teamsheet because without Cabaye their chances are severely diminished.