Man City v Man Utd Tip

There may have been something of an over-reaction to Man Utd’s recent problems, although none of us can be too sure of anything for a few more months at least. The sense that the balance of power has already shifted in Manchester is evident in the odds for Sunday’s FA Cup clash. Hosts City are 11/10 (PaddyPower), while United have eased out to a best price of 11/4 with VictorChandler.

It’s tempting just to take the price on the reigning league champions, such is the novelty of seeing them as such long odds. But I can’t bring myself to go that far against the grain - it’s been a bewildering week for those forecasting Man Utd games - but a score draw at 15/4 (VictorChandler) does appeal.

To justify opposing the bookies I offer two thoughts. Firstly, it’s still been a while since City won at home in this fixture (excluding a first leg Carling Cup match that United went on to win on aggregate). The last ‘proper’ home win was in August 2007; the Blues haven’t even scored when hosting the last three league fixtures.

Secondly, anyone who watched the two big midweek matches involving these sides knows that the scorelines didn’t tell the whole story. Liverpool matched City for long periods and somehow lost 3-0 at Eastlands. Similar could be said of United, who were undone by moments of rare brilliance from Newcaslte. Dare I suggest they were slightly freaky results.

The fact remains that these teams are pretty evenly matched; three points is all that separates them in the league when it’s all said and done. Mancini will miss the Toure brothers as they head off to Africa, while Ferguson is growing accustomed to his makeshift line-ups. The old master will really have a score to settle in this one and I just think they can stop the rot. A goalless draw seems most unlikely with the strikers on display, so a score draw at a best price of 15/4 (VictorChandler) gets the nod.