Liverpool v Reading Tip

Reading have been spirited on their return to the top flight and are unbeaten in their last three in all competitions, scoring seven in that run. So far that first league win remains elusive but they probably should have won both the recent 2-2 draws with Swansea and Newcastle respectively. They also led with 21 minutes to go at Stamford Bridge, suggesting they can also compete away to the big boys.

I’m happy to take the Royals to win or draw in the double chance market this weekend at best odds of 12/5 with Coral. A statistical look at Liverpool’s home record in 2012 makes this bet feel almost obligatory.

In fact, let’s start by going back even further to see how the Reds faired at Anfield between August and December 2011. At that point the Kop faithful was frustrated to see so many dropped points at home to the following lesser lights of the Premier League.

Liverpool 1 Sunderland 1
Liverpool 1 Norwich 1
Liverpool 0 Swansea 0
Liverpool 1 Blackburn 1

Those missed opportunities seemed bad enough at the time but then look what’s happened since the turn of the year. Remarkably, Liverpool have won just two of their 12 Anfield league fixtures in 2012.

Liverpool 0 Stoke 0
Liverpool 0 Spurs 0
Liverpool 1 Arsenal 2
Liverpool 3 Everton 0
Liverpool 1 Wigan 2
Liverpool 1 Villa 1
Liverpool 0 WBA 1
Liverpool 0 Fulham 1
Liverpool 4 Chelsea 1
Liverpool 2 Man City 2
Liverpool 0 Arsenal 2
Liverpool 1 Man Utd 2
Liverpool 0 Stoke 0

As you can see, failures have come as regularly against small teams as title contenders. Bear in mind also that the standout victory against Chelsea came just days after the Blues had won the FA Cup Final and was largely irrelevant.

When you consider that Liverpool have won just 16.7% of their Anfield games in the last 10 months, 12/5 on draw-away in the double chance market looks like a gift.