Genk v Chelsea

This Champions League clash should have been of little consqequence to Chelsea with progress to the knock-out stages already looking pretty assured. However, all that changed when Andre Villas-Boas’ side conceded five goals at home to Arsenal on Saturday. Given that it came hot on the heels of a defeat to newly promoted QPR, the pressure is on the Blues to pull out a result before the rot sets in.

It appeared that Genk’s best chance was that Chelsea wouldn’t be fully focused. With this game now taking on heightened importance for the Londoners, those hopes appear to have been dashed. The Blues won the Stamford Bridge fixture 5-0 and all the stats make grim reading for the Belgian side. Genk are winless in 13 European games (excluding qualifiers) whereas Chelsea have scored more goals in this year’s competition than everyone except Barcelona.

Villas-Boas has virtually a full squad to select from with Michael Essien the only significant absentee. With Didier Drogba available while he serves a three match ban domestically, the starting line-up becomes a tricky one to predict. That makes goalscorer betting look frought with danger. Any of Torres, Drogba and Sturridge could be benched, but are short odds regardless.

With that in mind it looks safest to look elsewhere for our value and target the margin of victory. Chelsea are 13/8 (SkyBet) to win by three goals or more; that looks inviting considering the gulf in class and the visitors having something to prove.