19th Apr 2013 | Football
Fulham v Arsenal Tip
It was 3-3 at the Emirates and the Gunners haven't beaten Fulham in their last four attempts.
One of the hardest things to do from a gambling perspective is to back your instincts after a major setback but, at the risk of looking foolish, that’s what I’m doing for this London derby. Fulham may have lost 3-0 to Chelsea in midweek, but they are still over-priced at 4/1 to beat Arsenal.
The first thing I would say is that the importance of first goals can’t be over-stated in Premier League football. Martin Jol’s boys bossed the early exchanges agains the European champions and had they got their noses in front it could have all ended very differently.
Secondly, Arsenal had their fair share of breaks in beating Norwich 3-1 on Wednesday and they are due something significant to go against them. Furthermore, the Gunners haven’t won at Craven Cottage since 2009 and are winless in their last four anywhere against Fulham. History is not against the hosts as it was against Chelsea and that can have a psychological impact.
The Cottagers have won as many times at home (seven) as Arsenal have away so the huge disparity in odds is hard to justify. Fulham have enjoyed another fine campaign and they usually beat at least one of the big boys here every season. Saturday could be their day.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 12:02 19th Apr, 2013 but subject to change
