8th Jan 2016 | FA Cup
Villa Can Show Gulf In Class
The match at Adams Park has been earmarked as a potential shock and that has already been built into the price.
It is the third round of the FA Cup this weekend, perhaps the most cliché ridden time of year. Without wishing to sound uncharitable, in the pursuit of money it’s best to ignore the frivolities and stick with the facts.
First up we have Aston Villa at Wycombe. BT Sport cameras will be at Adams Park on the hunt for an upset but if a tv producer thinks this is a banana skin then you can be sure betting markets have adjusted their line already.
Aston Villa might be rooted to the foot of the Premier League but they haven’t been hopeless. Paul Riley’s expected goal model has them 17th in expected goal difference and if the league table were different they wouldn’t be odds-against.
Aston Villa might be heading for the Championship but they are still a far superior team to League Two Wycombe.
During the build up the focus will be on hyping the underdog but remember for all their problems Aston Villa have professional pride at stake. No Villa player will want to be the laughing stock, more so than they already are.
We can get 6/5 (Betfred) on a Premier League team beating a team from League 2 and that looks good value to me.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 01:01 8th Jan, 2016 but subject to change
