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30th May 2015 | FA Cup

FA Cup Final Tips: Margin Of Victory

The last 10 FA Cup finals have either been settled by a one goal margin, or gone to extra time or even penalties. In other words, they're always close encounters.

It sounds daft to describe a side going for back-to-back FA Cup victories as frequently unconvincing favourites at Wembley but that’s exactly what Arsenal are.

One of the Gunners’ recent nadirs was the 2011 League Cup final defeat to soon-to-be relegated Birmingham City but they haven’t looked that great more recently at the national stadium.

In last year’s FA Cup semi-finals Arsenal needed penalties to overcome Championship Wigan before they overcome a 2-0 deficit against Hull in the final. This time around they squeezed past Reading after extra time to get here so they have hardly been convincing!

Aston Villa are playing well enough under Tim Sherwood to be considered tougher opponents than any of the above and therefore the odds are all wrong. The underdogs are 11/2 to win in 90 minutes with most firms.

However, we can exploit a recent trend in this fixture to extract even more value. The last eight FA Cup finals were all decided by a single goal margin of victory, twice after extra time. The two games before that went to penalties so it’s always been close in the last decade.

So let’s be bold and back Villa to win by one goal (in 90 minutes) at a best price of 15/2 with Paddy Power.

*Bet £20 pre-match and get £10 free in-play with Paddy Power. Place £20 or more in single bets before the FA Cup Final kick-offs with Paddy and the Irish firm will give you two £5 bets to use in-play. Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 1/2 or higher. T&Cs apply.

1pt Aston Villa to win by 1 goal 15/2 with Paddypower
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:54 30th May, 2015 but subject to change

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