30th May 2015 | FA Cup
FA Cup Final Tips: Margin Of Victory
The last 10 FA Cup finals have either been settled by a one goal margin, or gone to extra time or even penalties. In other words, they're always close encounters.
It sounds daft to describe a side going for back-to-back FA Cup victories as frequently unconvincing favourites at Wembley but that’s exactly what Arsenal are.
One of the Gunners’ recent nadirs was the 2011 League Cup final defeat to soon-to-be relegated Birmingham City but they haven’t looked that great more recently at the national stadium.
In last year’s FA Cup semi-finals Arsenal needed penalties to overcome Championship Wigan before they overcome a 2-0 deficit against Hull in the final. This time around they squeezed past Reading after extra time to get here so they have hardly been convincing!
Aston Villa are playing well enough under Tim Sherwood to be considered tougher opponents than any of the above and therefore the odds are all wrong. The underdogs are 11/2 to win in 90 minutes with most firms.
However, we can exploit a recent trend in this fixture to extract even more value. The last eight FA Cup finals were all decided by a single goal margin of victory, twice after extra time. The two games before that went to penalties so it’s always been close in the last decade.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:54 30th May, 2015 but subject to change