Italy v Croatia: Scoreline Tip

Although Italy surprised many pundits with their assured performance against Spain, the next challenge they face in Poznan could not be more contrasting.

The Azzurri flourished as a counter-attacking force against tiki-taka football played in front of their back four without a recognised striker in sight. But Croatia, the tallest team in the tournament, will bombard them with a more direct approach supplemented by the craft of Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic.

History is not on the side of the short-priced Italians (13/10 Boylesports) who have never beaten Croatia in five attempts, losing three times. And if history doesn’t matter, what of form? Prandelli’s players haven’t enjoyed the taste of victory since November last year.

Bilic’s team have now won their last four European Championship group games, which suggests they know how to do tournament football. Can the same really be said of the Azzurri these days? They’ve only won one of their last nine matches in major tournaments, given that the two encounters settled by penalty shoot-outs were classified as draws.

I anticipate a cagey match early on with both sides feeling out their opponents. But the underdogs should grow in confidence if it remains goalless for a while. I think an upset could be on the cards and a Croatia 1-0 win at best odds of 15/2 (PaddyPower) looks very feasible.