Euro 2012 Final: Spain v Italy Tip

If you take away the fact that Spain won this tournament in 2008 and the World Cup two years later, would they ever be priced up as short as 6/5 (WilliamHill) to win the final of Euro 2012 in 90 minutes? The answer must surely be no.

So the consequent big question is how much of an advantage will those triumphant experiences give La Roja? Again, I can’t see it making any significant difference between two sides who played out an evenly fought contest in Group B precisely three weeks ago. That recent experience will assure Italy they have nothing to fear, and they will believe, quite rightly, that the team to improve the most since then are themselves.

Furthermore, if we’re going to make a lot of Spain’s team of winners then we must also remember that Gianluigi Buffon and Andrea Pirlo were in the starting line-up when Italy won the 2006 World Cup final. Those two have been magnificent in this tournament and are set to play pivotal roles again on Sunday.

I don’t think the case for the ‘upset’ is a difficult one to make. At times the Azzurri looked pretty good in the group stages but they’ve really flourished since then. Against England they were utterly dominant in possession and defensively sound. An obvious conclusion was that they were a very good side who only lacked a clinical edge in the final third.

But that was before Mario Balotelli came of age in the semi-final victory over Germany. The Manchester City enigma provided two emphatic finishes to take his tally to three goals for the tournament. Italy were magnificent on the night and wouldn’t have been flattered had they converted one of their late counter-attacking chances to win by more than two goals.

While Prandelli’s men are on a definite upward curve, I’m far less convinced that the same can be said of the defending champions. Where Balotelli and Cassano have a potency, Del Bosque has failed to find the perfect solution for his front line. Of course, that would imply he has a front-line.

The experiment of playing an orthodox striker, Negredo, was scrapped early in the second-half against Portugal and the alternative of playing Fabregas as a ‘ghost number nine’ still appears his most likely preference for the final. Ultimately, I think the failure to fill the void left by the injury to record-scorer David Villa may be the difference between winning and losing a third major trophy on the bounce.

With Spain’s excellent defensive record I think this will be a low-scoring showpiece settled by very small margins. But Italy are reproducing the spirit of 2006 and are superb value underdogs to get their hands on the trophy. Whether they edge it in 90 minutes, or require extra-time or penalties, the Azzurri have my backing to win Euro 2012 at best odds of 13/8 with Bet365.