Football Feature: Concentrating on the Sack

Premier League managers are paid a lot of money to make brilliant tactical decisions. But sometimes, regardless of individual preferences for a 4-4-2 formation or otherwise, it just pays to play your best players. Cup matches are seen as the ideal time for squad rotation as managers say, or playing the reserves, as fans see it. Heaven forbid we think managers don’t care about the Cup - they really do, obviously - it’s just that, yet again, this seemed like the ideal time to ‘freshen things up.’ Except it clearly wasn’t, because the youngsters were soundly beaten again. Oh well, back to the league then.

But the thing is, managers should care about the Cup, if only because the fans do. Don’t get me wrong, there are exceptions to this rule. If Ian Holloway rested Blackpool’s best players in an early round of the Carling Cup to preserve them for the Premiership survival battle then I’m sure all the Tangerines’ fans would accept it. But if you manage a bigger side, with aspirations above simply ‘staying up’, then fans will demand you give every chance of a trophy your best shot. A decent Cup run can illuminate an otherwise mediocre season. Furthermore, good results breed confidence and gather momentum, whatever competition they come in. How many managers can really afford to turn their noses up at all that?

A few weeks ago Aston Villa had turned the corner. A run of one defeat in nine games had moved them up to mid-table and made them 28/1 long shots for relegation. With Premiership survival looking inevitable they could go into their FA Cup replay with Man City with confidence, form and dreams of Wembley. But then, with one team selection, the whole mood of the club was to change. Gerard Houllier fielded a weakened team, Man City cruised to a comfortable 3-0 victory and the Villa fans were furious. Two games and two defeats later and the Holte End is really baying for blood. Now just one point above the drop zone again, the odds on the drop have shortened to just 6/1 and Houllier is priced at just 4/1 with SkyBet to be the next manager out the door. When will managers wake up to the realisation that concentrating on the league is asking for trouble?

If we look at the Villa situation more closely then Gerard Houllier’s decision to shuffle the pack looks catastrophic. Just days before the Cup replay the Midlanders had thumped Blackburn 4-1 and confidence was sky-high. With Man City looking indifferent, and a quarter final home tie against Championship Reading beckoning for the winner, this looked like a real opportunity. But by making eight changes to the side that dispatched Blackburn with ease, Houllier appeared to throw in the towel from the first whistle. After the game he remained defiant, saying “if I had to do it again, I would.” Fans may have been more forgiving if he had held his hand up and accepted that resting Ashley Young and Stewart Downing, among others, had proved to be a mistake.

The under-fire manager made matters worse by citing the “important game against Bolton on Saturday, which made it “important to use the quality in my squad.” The 3-0 capitulation to City made a nonsense of the so-called ‘quality’ of the squad and the subsequent defeat to Bolton left the Frenchman light on excuses. In fairness, Houllier’s first team were somewhat unfortunate to lose at the Reebok Stadium, but the problem was he had exhausted any possible goodwill and patience by his previous actions.

I can scarcely remember a time when a manager has lost the fans so rapidly. Having won the previous home game 4-1 Houllier had contrived to make himself a hate figure by the very next match at Villa Park. This was suddenly one of those times when playing in front of your own public starts to look distinctly disadvantageous. The pressure on the players to beat local rivals Wolves was unbearable and the visitors arrived with the swagger of a side who had gone three games unbeaten. Mick McCarthy’s players relished the occasion, capitalising on the pressure consuming Villa, and emerged with a well deserved 1-0 victory that moved them within one point of their illustrious neighbours.

Whisper it quietly, but I suspect Villa fans would rather have the straight talking Mick McCarthy in their dugout right now instead of the present incumbent. When asked after the game whether he sympathised with Houllier’s current plight, the Wolves manager was typically forthright. “I don’t like to hear any manager getting hostility, but I’d prefer it to be him than me. So, no, to be honest, I don’t giving a flying flute.” There’s a reason why McCarthy is as long as 50/1 to be the next manager out, despite his team’s perilous position. The Yorkshireman’s personality, and some notable results with an unfashionable side have certainly helped his popularity, but in other cases Cup success has been crucial.

There is no better example of this than Alex McLeish. Birmingham haven’t won a game since their Carling Cup triumph last month but the Scotsman’s job appears to be under no threat at all. Although second bottom of the league right now the Blues will have the support of St Andrews to help get them out of bother. Gerard Houllier should take note that a triumphant trip to Wembley brings with it a feel-good factor that isn’t extinguished overnight.

Villa should still stay up and Houllier may not be out the door just yet, but neither of these verdicts is a positive reflection on the former Liverpool manager. The main reason why they should survive is the players at their disposal. Darren Bent is a proven Premier League goalscorer who has now started to find the net regularly for England as well. Ashley Young was even Man of the match for his country on Saturday. When Villa fans see what these two can do for England it will just remind them how unacceptable a relegation fight for their club really is.

The truth is that Houllier would be even shorter odds for the sack if he’d been there just a little longer. Having taken over in September, the board will be reluctant to push the panic button after just six months. That said, Houllier’s current level of unpopularity is rarely turned around. If he doesn’t find at least one win very soon then Randy Lerner may listen to the unhappy masses sooner rather than later. If Blackburn’s owners are true to their word then Steve Kean’s job is safe for some time to come. With that in mind the 5/1 that WilliamHill offer on Houllier being next Premier League manager out looks tempting. I genuinely doubt I’d be saying this if he’d just picked his best team for the match against Man City. That night he sent out the message to his entire squad that Villa were still in a relegation battle when everyone else was starting to aim higher. Arguably, only that negativity has proved him right.