Chelsea v QPR Tip

The Chelsea-QPR match is expected to be so one-sided that it’s almost impossible to hunt down value without really going out on a limb.

The Blues are as short as 11/8 (Skybet) to win by three goals or more which is pretty off-putting when you consider that these sides shared a 0-0 draw earlier in the season. However, there is no sound logic to backing a shock away win (14/1 Bet365), other than to say anything can happen in football.

You need to find an angle, even for a long-shot punt, and I think there is a case to be made for an even bigger price prospect. At best odds of 18/1, Adel Taarabt is worth a look in the last goalscorer market. And here’s why.

In one-sided contests, goals eventually become easier to come by for both teams. If Chelsea storm into a comfortable lead then they are more likely to lose concentration and switch off defensively. Opponents still playing for pride, or personal glory, can then capitalise.

One player who is more likely than most to keep having a pop is Taarabt. The Moroccan has had a remarkable 61 shots in 16 Premier League games in 2012-13. Compare that with the favourite in the last goalscorer betting; Fernando Torres (15/4 Bet365) has only had 44 shots in 19 top flight appearances.

Based on these figures, the disparity in price is far too big regardless of team qualities.