Chelsea v Birmingham Tip

The bookies have priced this match up as a formality, when it really shouldn’t be. In many ways this is a nightmare fixture for the under-pressure Andre Villas-Boas; a game that everybody expects his side to win, which will actually be very tricky. That said, i’m not daring enough to take the 10/1 (Boylesports) on Birmingham actually causing a major upset. But those are intriguing odds on a side unbeaten in 13 league and cup matches.

Chelsea will be desperate to avoid further negative headlines after the 2-0 defeat at Everton last weekend. They are obviously still the better team, and that grim determination should see them through in the end. To find the value on the hosts progressing, after some resistance, I think the best bet is ‘half time: draw - full time: Chelsea’ at best odds of 7/2 with Betfred.

The likelihood of Chris Hughton’s side staying in the game well into the second period is easy to illustrate. The ‘Brummie Blues’ haven’t conceded a goal in February; remarkably, they have kept seven clean sheets in their last eight outings. With AVB still unable to call upon Didier Drogba and Salomon Kalou up front, the pressure may well be on goal-shy Fernando Torres yet again.

The Londoners will surely make home advantage count in the end. But there’s money to be made by expecting it to be hard-fought.