Chelsea v Benfica Tip

A draw (14/5 Boylesports) is a result that would see Chelsea through to a semi-final with Barcelona, if only just.

Many of the home fans at Stamford Bridge will arrive thinking that all the hard work has been done in this tie after a 1-0 win over in Portugal. But Benfica shouldn’t be underestimated; a best price of 3/4 (BetVictor) on another Chelsea win does exactly that.

The reasons why Roberto Di Matteo may endure an anxious evening protecting a slender lead are not hard to find. Benfica were hugely unfortunate to lose on home soil after 25 attempts on goal to just 12 for the visitors. It was the first time that Jorge Jesus’s side have failed to score in the Champions League this season.

They have, of course, still scored in every away fixture in the competition and will take particular heart from their 2-2 draw at Old Trafford in the group stages. Expect the Primeira Liga team to fly out of the blocks having scored 67% of their goals in the first half of European matches this season - no team has a higher proportion in the competition.

For Chelsea, 1-0 is a tricky lead to play with. An away goal would put them in real danger so a slightly cautious approach may be understandable. With all this in mind I think a draw is the obvious value play.