Chelsea v Barcelona: First Goalscorer Tip

Barcelona may deserve to be seen as the best team in Europe, but we should not regard them as invincible.

The fact is that they still trail their arch rivals in La Liga by four points after 33 games. Real Madrid lined up as marginal underdogs against Bayern Munich on Tuesday night and duly lost 2-1. The Catalans face a similarly tough first leg at Stamford Bridge, but they are overwhelming 8/11 (PaddyPower) favourites, with Chelsea out at 17/4 (BetVictor).

I happen to think the best place to oppose Barcelona is in the goalscorer markets. Anybody who watched the first leg of their quarter final with AC Milan at the San Siro will know that the hosts had numerous opportunities to score. For all their attacking brilliance, the reigning champions do give quality opponents a chance down the other end. Milan did score five times against Guardiola’s side over the other three matches they played between the group stage and knockout.

An interesting stat is that Lionel Messi has never scored against Chelsea in six games. There is no other team he has played more against in the Champions League without finding the net. It’s also worth noting that the Blues have opened the scoring in all 10 of their fixtures in this competition in 2011-12.

These trends convince me that there’s value to be had in the first goalscorer market that is inevitably tilted in favour of Messi at 3/1 (StanJames). But the man who stands out for me is Didier Drogba at a best price of 10/1 with bodog. The Chelsea talisman was back at the top of his game on Sunday against Spurs and scored a sublime opener that set his team on their way to a 5-1 victory.

Despite another huge game coming along quickly, I just can’t see how Roberto Di Matteo can afford not to start with the Ivorian on Wednesday.  He scored twice in the crucial group stage decider against Valencia. He turned the tie against Napoli in the round of 16; both times he was the man to break the deadlock at the Bridge.

There may be no guarantee that Drogba will start against Barcelona, but at 10/1 (bodog) that risk is more than justified by the price.