Champions League Tips: Arsenal

The Champions League is the premier football competition in Europe but it is also the most predictable in the early phases. The knockout stages compromise the same teams every year and the winner invariably comes from a select list.

These are the last five winners of the Champions League and the stage they exited the competition in the five years prior to their victory.

2012 Chelsea: QF-L16-QF-F-SF
2011 Barcelona: SF-W-SF-L16-W
2010 Inter: L16-L16-L16-QF-QF
2009 Barcelona: SF-L16-W-L16-DNQ
2008 Man United: SF-L32-L16-L16-QF

The consistency of these results shows experience of reaching the knockout stages is crucial. The last five winners reached the last 16 at least four times prior to winning the competition.

That trend creates a shortlist for the 2012/13 competition:

Barcelona 11/4 (Paddy Power)
Real Madrid 9/2 (BetVictor)
Manchester United 10/1 (Paddy Power)
Bayern Munich 14/1 (BetVictor)
Chelsea 16/1 (Paddy Power)
Arsenal 25/1 (Paddy Power)
AC Milan 40/1 (Bet365)

There is not much value in the Spanish giants; the market knows everything about them. But at a more fancy price I’m drawn to Arsenal.

They have reached the knockout stages in each of the last five seasons, going as far as the semi-finals in 2009. The experience built up over these years will stand the team in good stead and as Chelsea proved, the best team on paper doesn’t always win.

At 25/1 (Paddy Power) the value is on Arsenal emulating their London rivals and winning their first Champions League title.