Cardiff v Reading

The bookies will say, quite understandably, that Cardiff are favourites to reach the Championship play-off final after claiming a 0-0 away draw in the first leg at Reading on Friday night. But when a team is prone to anxiety, the nerves are twice as likely to show at home. This is the problem facing Dave Jones’s side. Their last game at the Cardiff City Stadium was a meek 3-0 surrendering to mediocre Middlesbro, when automatic promotion was still the dream.

Reading may have suffered some jitters of their own at the Madejski Stadium but they can travel to Wales with the confidence of a side unbeaten on their travels since February. A month after that last narrow away defeat at Norwich, they beat Everton in the FA Cup at Goodison Park. This is clearly not a side overawed by a big occasion or a big ground. The 4-3 Royals win at the City Ground in April showed what Brian McDermott’s side were capable of away to another side in the play-offs.

Cardiff will desperately hope that talisman Craig Bellamy passes a late fitness test, but having left the pitch on Friday night with a hamstring injury that may be unlikely. However, the goal threat provided by the likes of Bothroyd and Chopra can’t be discounted in his absence. It’s a tough game to call; the fact that all three fixtures between these two sides this season have ended level tells its own story. It would be no surprise to see that 90 minute outcome again on Tuesday and the draw is 23/10 with totesport.

But let’s find some real value by calculating what happens next in that scenario. The Royals may have the greater bottle and could get the job done in the most dramatic fashion. Reading to win on penalties is an intriguing 11/1 shot with skybet.