Bristol Rovers v Aston Villa Tip

If I’m being entirely honest, the temptation here is to follow the ‘romance of the cup’ line and simply back Bristol Rovers to beat the ‘Big Time Charlies’ from the Premier League at best odds of 13/2 (VictorChandler). The problem is that there is almost no practical evidence to suggest it will happen!

The League Two side sacked their manager Paul Buckle this week following a run of four straight defeats which has seen the Pirates slump to 19th in the table. They haven’t have won a fixture in their own division since October, so it’s a pretty big ask to suddenly turn over one of the biggest sides in the country! Previous assistant boss Shaun North is the man tasked with producing a minor miracle and he is likely to without goalkeeper Scott Bevan and leading scorer Matt Harrold through injury.

I don’t think Alex McLeish will be foolish enough to field a side that isn’t close to his strongest, given the pressure he is already under. Villa have plenty of problems, but away from home their cautious approach can be quite efficient. The 3-1 victory at Stamford Bridge recently was an obvious highlight but also unusual; generally the games are pretty turgid and low scoring. The Villains have won two and drawn two of their last four on their travels, conceding just twice in that run. The two 0-0 draws at Stoke and Swansea showed how McLeish will always look for a clean sheet first and foremost.

Against lower calibre opponents I still expect Villa to tread carefully, but they should have enough quality to progress. Rather than going for romance at 13/2, reality suggests a shrewder bet would be to take the even longer odds on Villa to win 1-0 at a best price of 15/2 (Coral).