Bradford v Aston VIlla Tip

Logic suggests that the two-legged semi-finals adopted by the League Cup reduce the likelihood of a major upset and a small team appearing in the final. One would always assume that quality will tell over time, and there’s more time in these last four clashes than in most major knockout competitions.

To illustrate the point, underdogs Crystal Palace won the first leg of their clash with Cardiff in last season’s semi-final but didn’t progress. Furthermore, in 2010-11 Ipswich beat Arsenal at Portman Road but the Gunners made it to Wembley after the re-match. There are plenty of other examples.

The bookmakers appear to broadly agree that quality will tell in the end because they make Bradford a best price of 6/1 (Bet365) to make it to the final. The logic holds that they are more likely to beat Villa at Valley Parade on the night at 18/5 (Boylesports) however.

But here’s the interesting part where I think we find our value. If the underdogs are most likely to do well in the short term, why are the Bantams priced at a longer 4/1 (Totesport) to lead at half-time on Tuesday?

I think the League Two side are more likely to lead after 45 minutes than 90, so I’ll happily take the better odds on that eventuality.