Barcelona v Chelsea: Scoreline Tip

Chelsea’s surprisingly good record over Barcelona in recent years looks like something of an anomaly that the Spanish and European champions can put right on Tuesday evening. While the Londoners were hugely unlucky to lose their sem-final in 2009 after two draws, Guardiola’s side have improved since then. The same can not be said of a team currently sat sixth in the English Premier League.

A first leg 1-0 victory for Roberto Di Matteo’s troops at Stamford Bridge was commendable but a repeat looks highly improbable. Didier Drogba’s goal was the hosts’ only shot on target and the Catalans missed a series of gilt-edged opportunities. In the wider confines of the Nou Camp stadium, quality will surely tell.

The most optimistic Blues fans will point out that Barca are clearly fallible after losing to Real Madrid at the weekend to all but surrender their La Liga crown. But Mourinho has made ‘the merengues‘ a great side in their own right and we shouldn’t read too much into that defeat.

Chelsea should instead beware the wounded animal. Guardiola is clearly riled by what he sees as a media over-reaction to recent setbacks. Lionel Messi will also, surely, have noted the analysis of why he has so far failed to score against these particular English opponents. He will undoubtedly be keen to address any inference that John Terry and co may somehow have a hold on him. The best player in the world with a point to prove could be a sight to behold.

So how can we expect the match to unfold? Di Matteo is smart enough to realise that playing for a 0-0 draw is doomed to failure. Drogba and co have shown they can cause the Spaniards problems and history suggests that the visitors should get an opportunity or two to claim a significant away goal.

But Barcelona will feel they have the attacking ferocity to progress to another Champions League final regardless. If they do concede, they will need three goals to win the tie. I think this is a likely scenario and outcome; a 3-1 home win looks a solid wager at best odds of 10/1 with WilliamHill.