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27th Sep 2011 | Football

Arsenal v Olympiakos

Wenger senses improvement at Arsenal

Arsene Wenger has too much experience to allow a slip-up in this one.

It’s hard not to worry about Arsenal in the Premier League this season but so far they are still winning the ‘home bankers’. Udinese, Swansea, Shrewsbury and Bolton have all come to the Emirates and left empty-handed - only Liverpool have had success. With all due respect to Olympiakos, they shouldn’t be a side capable of plunging Arsene Wenger back into misery.

The Gunners haven’t lost a home Champions League match to non-English opposition since 2003. That includes some pretty illustrious visitors, such as the mighty Barcelona who were beaten last season. Arsenal have won 19 of their last 23 home encounters in the group stages. In contrast, the Greek champions have lost all five of their previous encounters in England, conceding 15 with just one in reply. They do not travel well.

Admittedly, Arsenal have a plethora of injury problems but with the likes of Robin van Persie fit and firing they should triumph with something to spare. The Dutchman scored twice at the weekend and has notched eight in his last 10 Champions League games at the Emirates.

The usual problem is that backing an anticipated home win gets you short shrift with the bookies. The best price on an Arsenal win is 4/9 with PaddyPower. But yet again I find myself amazed by the comparative value of backing the hosts to win after leading at half-time. Remarkably WilliamHill has drifted out to an excellent 21/10 for ‘Arsenal/Arsenal’ in the half-time - full-time market. Make no mistake, if Arsenal get their noses in front early, they will win. That price should therefore be snapped up.

*Odds Update - 29th Sep, 2011 9:42
The odds we used for this tip were incorrect, the actual price was Evens. We have corrected the P&L accordingly.

2pts Half time: Arsenal Full time: Arsenal 21/10* with William Hill
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 15:57 27th Sep, 2011 but subject to change

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