3rd Feb 2011 | Six Nations
England v Wales Rugby Tip
England's reputation goes before them but the statistics say the reputation is unwarranted.
A couple of victories over Australia and the bookmakers think England are top of the Northern Hemisphere, but like the north pole they are floating on thin ice.
There is now doubt that the England team is improving, performances alone show that but they are a long way from the finished article. There back row is all over the place with the likes of Croft and Moody big misses not to say the hole Courtney Lawes leaves in the second row.
Unlike the bookmakers I don’t think victory on Friday night is a formality, for starters they haven’t won in Cardiff for eight years. England’s away form has been distinctly average winning only 46% of their away games in the Six Nations not the record of 8/13 shots like Totesport rate them.
The counter argument is that Wales haven’t won a game since last year’s Six Nations, true but you get this with Wales, their form fluctuates from one season to the next. Even counting this they have won 54% of their home games in the Six Nations and the odds don’t reflect this.
The match is probably a coin toss between the two sides and for that reason Wales represent the value bet.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 17:53 3rd Feb, 2011 but subject to change
