Sandown Tips: Bonfire

The defection of So You Think has taken the shine off the Coral Eclipse (3.45 Sandown) but it has reinvigorated the race from a betting perspective.

By making Farhh favourite, the market is assuming he would have gone close in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, granted a clear run. The interference was obvious to all who watched the race and that is factored into his price. There is no value here. 

Nathaniel and Cityscape both have question marks over the trip, therefore I’m inclined to look even further down the market.

Bonfire has been on the drift all week but he is exactly the type of horse I’m willing to give a second chance too. He disappointed in the Derby but a combination of the track, the 12f distance or the fast ground could have been his undoing.

The key to backing this horse is your opinion of the Dante. The first four at York all regressed on their subsequent runs suggesting the race may have taken its toll on the three-year-olds.

Run in testing conditions, this assertion was backed up by Andrew Balding in his post race comments about Bonfire: “Jimmy (Fortune) felt he was getting a little bit leg-weary through the last furlong.”

My hypothesis is that the Dante was a high quality race but the main protagonists needed a long break to get over their exertions. The 16 days between the Dante and the Derby weren’t long enough for Bonfire to recover. Since then he has enjoyed a more satisfactory 35-day break.

Paddy Power are refunding losing bets, up to £100, if your horse finishes second to Farhh. Given this concession I’m happy to take the slightly lower 7/1 (Paddy Power) safe in the knowledge that if Bonfire drifts we are covered by their best odds guaranteed offer.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – Paddy Power
Back Bonfire with Paddy Power as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.

Money Back if Second to Farhh - Paddy Power
Paddy Power will refund losing bets up to £100 if your horse finishes second to Farhh in the Eclipse at 3.45 Sandown.