Dubai World Cup Tip: Transcend

The most valuable horse race in the world takes place in Dubai at 5.35 on Saturday evening. Worth £3.8million to the winner, horses have come from all over the world to capture the bounty.

Regardless of the riches on offer, it is just a horse race. The same rules apply to the World Cup as they do a seller at Wolverhampton.

As with any race, the first thing I do is build a picture of how it will be run. One thing stands out when analysing the field, there is very little pace. Of the 14 runners there is only one confirmed pace setter.

Whenever this scenario happens you have to take note. If there is a shortage of early pace, it can allow one horse to go to the front and dictate the race. An astute jockey can use this to his advantage, slowing the pace and conserving energy on the front runner. In effect it becomes a sprint in the home straight with the lead horse given a head start.

There is only one pace horse in the World Cup field; 33/1 outsider – Transcend.

Most UK readers will never have come across this horse; he is a Japanese miler who has made great strides in the last few months. A lightly raced 5 year old, he has won his last three starts, included two grade ones.

His last two wins in the February Stakes and Japan Cup are available to view on You Tube. In both races Transcend has bagged the rail and dictated the race, leading from start to finish. Although seemingly a one dimensional horse, these were highly competitive races where he showed admiral stamina to dispatch fellow early pace rivals.

A winner of over £2.5million in his career he is no back marker. In a world cup with no pace he could get a soft lead and make all again. It might be tense as he treads water in the final furlong but this race has thrown up funny results in its history. Transcend could be another.