20th Dec 2013 | Horse Racing
Ascot Tips: Reve De Sivola
Ground was too quick for him at Newbury so the recent rain is in his favour. Won the race last year.
The hype-horse in the Long Walk Hurdle (2.25 Ascot) remains At Fishers Cross but I’m struggling to see why he is heavily odds-on in the betting.
Last season he won six hurdle races in a row but I’m not convinced he’s improved with age.
His last six Racing Post Ratings have been 151-156-156-156-156-156 and although you could argue he’d have bettered a mark of 156 if not stumbling at Newbury, he was already backpedalling at the time of his mistake.
I think At Fishers Cross has reached his peak and that leaves him vulnerable to a horse capable of running to a mark in the 160s.
Reve De Sivola did just that when winning the Long Walk last year and he looks a big price to repeat that victory.
The key to the 8-year-old is the ground, in hurdle races of 2m4f or further, run on ground described as ‘soft’ or worse his record is 1212112013.
His only unplaced effort came in Auteuil after a long hard domestic season and his third place at Newbury last month came on ground much quicker than advertised.
Celestial Halo won the race in a time 1.35s above standard, which calls into question the official description of ‘soft, good to soft in places’ - the ground at Newbury was ‘good’ at worst.
Back on genuine soft ground, Reve De Sivola looks overpriced at 7/2 (Ladbrokes).
*Potential adjustment for non-runners still to be made.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:44 20th Dec, 2013 but subject to change
