F1 Drivers' Championship Tip: Nico Rosberg

Some of the bookies are reluctant to react to what their eyes were showing them at the Chinese Grand Prix - namely that Nico Rosberg has emerged as a genuine contender at the front of the grid. Mercedes had the fastest car in Shanghai, and could be a long term threat to McLaren. If that proves to be the case then we should snap up the 16/1 (Betfred) still available on the young German in the Drivers’ Championship; he rates as an excellent each-way prospect with 1/3 odds paid if he finishes second.

Mercedes, and in particular Schumacher, had already shown significant qualifying pace in Australia and Malaysia, but until China that hadn’t translated to race day. Team boss Ross Brawn was at the heart of some serious round-the-clock work to bridge the gap and even they were surprised by how good the results were last Sunday. Could it be that the controversial double DRS system is finally ready to make a telling impact?

Schumacher was unfortunate that a pit error cost him dearly, but in truth his team-mate was far superior in qualifying and was pulling away from the green lights onwards. The seven-time world champion will be quietly seething that he finds himself 44 points off the pace already, having collected just one in three races so far. That makes Rosberg the only Mercedes worth backing in the season-long betting.

We find ourselves in an intriguing situation where McLaren have the two overwhelming favourites despite their dominance being in some degree of doubt. Lewis Hamilton (2/1 bodog) leads the standings having finished third in every race. Jenson Button (9/4 bodog) is just two points back, although he has at least won a race in 2012. Having backed him at 7/1 in the ante-post market, we can’t be unhappy with his progress.

However,  that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take a great value each-way punt when it presents itself. Mercedes look superior to Ferrari and Red Bull, and genuine competition for McLaren. The 16/1 (Betfred) still available on Rosberg now looks far too long compared to the short odds on the British drivers.

Bahrain will be a tougher test for Mercedes with 50C track temperatures. They may well suffer more tyre-wear problems after flourishing in the cooler temperatures of last weekend. Rosberg doesn’t need to win to stay in contention, but if he does do well then we can’t expect his generous odds to linger. The smart move is to take the bet on now.