21st Jun 2012 | Formula 1
European GP Tips: Number of Finishers
In terms of reliability, Valencia is the best track on the F1 calendar. Last year every car made it to the finish.
With just a simple bit of maths, we can make some good money out of the European Grand Prix. Last year there were no retirements at Valencia, a record 24 cars finishing the race. Over the last four years, Valencia has averaged the fewest retirees of all the circuits on the F1 calendar, with only eight cars failing to finish.
Statistically, 90% of cars that start the European GP at Valencia finish the race. If that trend continues, we would expect 21.6 classified cars this weekend.
The other factor to take into account is the improved reliability of F1 cars. This season 84.3% of runners have made it to the chequred flag. If the trend persists, we would expect 20.2 cars to finish a ‘normal’ weekend.
By combining the two, a conservative estimate of finishers is 20.9. Ladbrokes are offering odds of 10/11 that more than 20.5 cars finish the race; a bet that we can strike with confidence given the data.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 17:22 21st Jun, 2012 but subject to change
