22nd Nov 2012 | Formula 1
Brazilian GP Tip: Driver On Pole Not To Win
Polesitters generally have a poor record at Interlagos and rain is forecast for the weekend.
The Formula 1 season builds to an exciting climax with the Brazilian GP this weekend. The title is up for grabs and although the bookies think Sebastian Vettel is nailed on at 2/7 (Ladbrokes) to win his third drivers’ title, I’m not so convinced.
Interlagos has a history of delivering exciting races and with rain forecast for the weekend it could become a lottery. Normally in these situations it pays to back an outsider to win the race, but which one? Button, Webber, Raikkonen, Grosjean and even Maldonado could spring a surprise but it’s hard to pick one over the other.
In this instance, I’m going to play it a safe and predict that the polesitter does not win the race at 10/11 (Blue Square).
If qualifying takes place on a wet or drying track we could get a surprise polesitter like we did with Nico Hulkenberg in 2010. A false position he wasn’t able to protect during the race.
If qualifying takes place in the dry and the usual suspects take pole, the race could be turned on it’s head if it rains on Sunday. Grid position then becomes largely irrelevant.
If it stays dry all weekend there is still no guarantee that the polesitters win their race; it has only happened once in the last five years. Throw in the sub-plot of Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso racing each other and pretty much anything could happen.
The safe bet is to take the 10/11 with Blue Square and let the madness commence.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 09:56 22nd Nov, 2012 but subject to change
