United 50:50 For Top-4 Finish

Manchester United find themselves 12 points behind Arsenal after their fourth league defeat of the season. Skybet make the Red Devils 20/1 outsiders to retain their title but more worryingly for David Moyes, United are evens (Coral) for a top-4 finish.

Languishing ninth in the league, is it time to adjust our expectations?

We are only 14 games into the season and form is prone to short term variation. It is possible that David Moyes and his team have just been unlucky; therefore it’s worth examining other performance metrics before coming to a conclusion.

Total Shot Ratio

The Total Shot Ratio is the proportion of shots taken versus shots conceded and can be used to show dominance. For a detailed explanation Martin Eastwood’s blog is well worth a read but put simply, a team with a ratio above 0.5 take more shots than they concede.

According to the Total Shot Ratio, Man Utd are in the position they deserve. Their shot creation and concession numbers are very similar which means they aren’t dominating matches as you would expect.

However, these tables come with a strong caveat; they don’t take into account the quality of shots.

Tottenham’s TSR is skewed by a high proportion of long-range shots (step up Andros Townsend), whilst last season Man Utd won the league despite a TSR of 0.53.

United’s shot creation/concession is the symptom of a structural problem but it is exacerbated by the absence of Robin Van Persie. As we proved back in April, the Dutch striker has one of the best conversion rates in the country, scoring with 17.96% of his shots.

Van Persie’s absence is a big blow for David Moyes, in games he has started United average 2.2 points, without him they average 0.4 points per game.

From a betting perspective we should look to oppose United when Van Persie is missing unless David Moyes proves he can alter their style of play.