Swansea City v Man Utd

Man Utd are really short-priced favourites (11/20 WilliamHill) despite the fact that Swansea are unbeaten at the Liberty Stadium and have conceded just one goal in five matches - a Premier League best. The trick here is to back the champions to win while finding a bet that acknowledges that it won’t be as easy as some people seem to think. This should get us some proper value.

It’s tempting to go with a scoreline bet. United have won their last two league matches 1-0 and another repeat here is 7/1 (Ladbrokes). A 2-0 victory for Sir Alex Ferguson’s side is the same price, just with a different bookie (7/1 WilliamHill). I couldn’t fault punters for going down this route, but I think we can do better.

A margin of victory bet is another temptation. The Red Devils are 5/2 (Boylesports) to triumph by a one goal margin and that does look pretty probable. But we’re effectively being charged for the possibility of a high scoring thriller at that price, United to win 3-2 for example, and I just don’t see many goals in this one. The champions have battened down the hatches lately and Swansea have been mean in Wales.

Brendan Rodgers’ side secured a notable 0-0 draw at Anfield last time out and this could be a similar sort of match. The difference lies in the opposition however; for many years United have had a greater killer instinct than Liverpool and they tend to get the job done on touch assignments, in the end. For that reason I’m advising an old favourite bet - half time: draw - full time: Man Utd at 18/5 (WilliamHill).