Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Tip

After Barcelona’s dramatic exit on Tuesday night, many punters will be asking if Real Madrid will follow their rivals out of the Champions league. They also trail by a one-goal margin heading into their home leg - but one significant difference is that Bayern Munich were unable to prevent a crucial away goal at the Allianz Arena.

At 2-1 this tie is finely poised. But it’s hard not to feel, at least with the benefit of hindsight, that Mourinho’s team may be better equipped than Barca to achieve the required result. When the two Spanish superpowers met at the weekend, it was the Merengues who emerged victorious at the Nou Camp to open up a seven-point lead in La Liga.

Madrid have won the most games in this season’s Champions League; nine out of 11 played. They have had the most shots (175) and found the net a joint-best 33 times - the same as Guardiola’s side.

Ronaldo scored the winner on Saturday and his form is sharper than Messi’s was going into these decisive matches. But Madrid have no shortage of match winners if things aren’t going to plan anyway. Kaka is looking close to his best again while Benzema has been directly involved (scored or assisted) in more Champions League goals than any other player in the competition - bar Messi.

And what of Bayern? They have continually raised their game in Europe while struggling to hit the heights in the Bundesliga. Media reports that Ribery and Robben had a falling out, and possibly came to blows last week, seem to have some basis in fact and that may remain a concern. Another task for Jupp Heynckes is to get Mario Gomez firing away from Germany; the prolific marksman has only scored one of his 12 CL goals on his travels.

I think everything suggests that Mourinho’s boys should have enough to edge their way to the final. But the 8/15 (PaddyPower) on the hosts winning on the night is hardly tempting. Instead, I recommend a margin of victory wager; Madrid to win by two goals is a best price of 4/1 with Ladbrokes.