PL Sack Race Tip: Mark Hughes

The first Premier League sacking of the season may be imminent with the two favourites for the chop going head-to-head in a basement battle on Saturday. Nigel Adkins (7/4 Skybet) is the shortest price, but I think it could be the day of reckoning instead for Mark Hughes at a best price of 5/2 with BetVictor.

If we look at the history of this betting market it’s clear that it’s the QPR boss who has all the negative momentum. He was a 7/1 shot in late September whereas the Saints manager has been short odds from day one. This has always struck me as peculiar and unfair. Surely a board will show patience to a man who has achieved back-to-back promotions to return the south coast club to the top flight for the first time since 2005.

But here we are with both teams in similarly precarious predicaments. The bookies are favouring the survival of Hughes largely because they expect the Hoops to beat Southampton at best odds of 10/11 (Bet365). That’s a short price for a team without a single league victory in 2012-13 and a miserable total of 4 points from 11 games. That’s a worse return than Derby had at this stage 5 seasons ago on what went on to be a record-breakingly dismal campaign.

The thing to remember is that an away win or a draw would be regarded as a positive outcome for Adkins. The Saints also have three of their next four after Saturday at St Mary’s Stadium and they would fancy their chances of getting a decent return out of visits from Newcastle, Norwich and Reading. In other words, even a defeat isn’t a crisis for a side who expected to be scrapping for survival.

You just can’t say the same thing about QPR who bankrolled the boss with 11 summer signings from glamorous locations such as Real Madrid and Inter Milan. Expectations for 2012-13 were sky-high with Hughes himself declaring in May on live TV that the club would ‘never be down the bottom end of the table again while he was in charge.’ Those words have already come back to bite him.

The Londoners will head next to Old Trafford, the first of three away matches in the next four after Saturday. QPR have not won away from Loftus Road under Hughes, and there’s a distinct possibility that they never will.