North London Braced For Goals

Arsenal have won the last two North London derbies 5-2 and are 200/1 (William Hill) to win by the same scoreline on Sunday. There is no logical reason why the same scoreline will crop up again but the quantity of goals in these derbies isn’t necessarily a statistical quirk.

Shots on target in last eight Premier League matches

The statistics show that Tottenham and Arsenal are two offensively minded teams who have plenty of shots on target. Goal expectations involving these sides are going to be higher than normal because more shots on target generally means more goals.

In the last eight matches, no team in the Premier League has had more shots on target that Spurs, with 63. Arsenal are close behind on 56 and apart from Liverpool also on 56, there is a big gap down to the fourth placed team Chelsea.

BetVictor go 9/5 that there are more than 3.5 goals in the match and that is a fair bet assuming either team doesn’t employ a sudden change in tactics.

The final result could be down to the goalkeepers. Jussi Jaaskelainen made a season high 11 saves against Tottenham on Monday night, almost earning West Ham a point. A similar performance by Hugo Lloris or Wojciech Szczesny could determine the outcome.

According to whoscored.com, the Arsenal stopper holds the edge in this department. The Polish international has an average rating of 6.8 this season compared Lloris’ 6.75. Szczesny is also the better shot stopper, he has saved 75% of shots on target compared to Lloris’ 67%.