Man Utd V Schalke: Scoreline

Manchester United matches against continental sides look like ideal fodder for scoreline predictions. The 2008 European champions have lost just one time in their previous 31 home games in the Champions League. They have also only conceded three goals in 11 games in this competition all season. With Schalke having failed to score in six of their last nine outings in the competition, a home clean sheet looks highly probable.

Ferguson’s side have no need to be too ambitious tonight and the absence of Wayne Rooney will only diminish their own goal threat. In their last three league games at Old Trafford United have won 1-0 twice and 2-0 once. It’s not hard to get a feel for how these games tend to pan out. The league leaders generally do the bare minimum they need to do, and very little more. In this case, they don’t need even a solitary goal, so long as they keep their opponents at bay.

Given the firm grip they have on this tie, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see a goalless draw played out in the second leg. The odds on this are 12/1 with Bluesquare. Given that other major firms are going as low as 15/2 on this eventuality, we can be confident that we are on to something here. Admittedly, the more likely scoreline may be 1-0 to the Red Devils, given their superiority over the Germans only a week ago. But Bluesquare is offering just 6/1 on that outcome. So the big question is whether 1-0 seems twice as likely as the 0-0? Given that both scorelines are entirely satisfactory to the hosts, and that Rooney is out, I would suggest definitely not. Therefore we will take our value by holding out for the 0-0 at 12/1.