Man Utd v Otelul Galati

The old problem of where to find some value pops up with the Manchester United v Otelul Galati Champions League match on Wednesday. The English champions are a best price of 1/9 (VictorChandler) for the win and the first goalscorer market could be a lottery depending on team selection.

The logic I’m going to apply is based around the belief that Ferguson has put renewed emphasis on defence and clean sheets after the 6-1 debacle against City. That certainly looked to be the case when United secured a hard-fought 1-0 win at Goodison Park on Saturday. The manager acknowledged that his side have been allowing too many shots on their own goal recently, and something must be done.

Rio Ferdinand will start for the first time since the embarrassment of the Manchester derby, and he will be particularly determined to prove to he still has what it takes days before his 33rd birthday. The problem is, betting on United to be the only scorers on Wednesday is still pretty unappealing at 2/5 (Bet365). Instead, I think we can find some value by assuming that the hosts will aim to establish a comfortable lead, then keep it tight. Protecting what they have may be more important than going for the juggernaut, with the current mindset around Old Trafford.

The other factor to consider is that Otelul may be unfashionable, but they haven’t looked like whipping boys. The Romanians gave 10-man United a scare on their own ground, and only lost their other two games by a solitary goal. With all this in mind, I think we can dare to go with a repeat of the scoreline prediction we successfully won in that first fixture between the two sides. This time we’ll back a 2-0 United win at best odds of 11/2 with Ladbrokes.