Man Utd v Blackburn Tip

It has all the makings of lambs to the slaughter, with Blackburn priced at an astonishing 28/1 (VictorChandler) to cause the shock of the season by winning at Old Trafford. The champions have won their last two fixtures 5-0, it’s Sir Alex Ferguson’s 70th birthday and the visiting manager’s job is hanging by a thread, if the bookies are correct. The script appears to be written, so it’s with mild trepidation that I predict, at decent odds, that it may actually be quite close. That would constitute an upset in itself!

A ‘meagre’ 2-1 victory for Man Utd is considered unlikely enough to be a 11/1 shot with PaddyPower. I think this is great value when we start to look at certain trends and the team news. Firstly the big question: why do I think that Blackburn can score? Well, the fact is they have scored in EVERY league match away from Ewood Park this season; and only the top five have scored more on their travels.

Secondly, a few excellent United performances in a row have rather masked the injury crisis that is bound to have an impact at some point. Defensively, the champions can barely get a recognised back four out on the pitch. Vidic is out for the season, but the captain has now been joined on the sidelines by Smalling and Evans, while Ferdinand is only expected to make the bench on Saturday. Against Wigan, Giggs and Carrick were forced to operate as makeshift defenders. With David De Gea seemingly having lost his place in goal, the whole back five looks highly experimental at best.

With the array of striking options at Ferguson’s disposal I can’t see them slipping up though, especially with top spot up for grabs - City don’t play till New Year’s Day. That said, the Red Devils should expect some spirit from a side that drew at Anfield last time out. United laboured to home victories against Sunderland and Norwich not so long ago; this could be a similar story. With the bookies primed for a cricket score, we get great odds by bucking the trend, to some extent.