12th Mar 2013 | Football
Malaga v Porto Tip
The hosts finished ahead of Milan and Zenit in the group stages and may have been written off too soon here.
In a tie that looked too close to call before the first leg, I think Malaga have been prematurely dismissed just because they trail 1-0 heading back to Spain. At best odds of 7/2 to progress with Bet365, the La Liga club must be the value play on Wednesday.
Porto were certainly superior in front of their own fans, but they have struggled to make the same impact on their travels for many a year in this competition. The Portuguese haven’t won any of their last six on the road in the Champions League knockout stages, dating all the way back to 2004.
Malaga are newcomers on this stage which has seen them under-rated in the Champions League throughout 2012-13. However, they have only ever lost two of their 25 European games and they impressed hugely in the group stages. They beat Zenit 3-0 and Milan 1-0 on the Costa del Sol which shows that the lack of an away goal may not be decisive here.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 18:17 12th Mar, 2013 but subject to change
